Domestic Political Determinants of the Onset of WTO Disputes

Leader changes induce changes in the pattern of protection and of filings of disputes at the WTO. Additionally, political institutions play an important modifying role. We offer a model that explains changes in trade policy and dispute onset induced by shifts in the sectors represented in government when leaders change. Democratic leaders are more likely to initiate WTO disputes than autocrats. Leader turnover in autocratic states greatly increases the risk of WTO dispute onset. Yet, leader turnover in a democratic state does not increase, and may even reduce, the rate of dispute onset. ∗We thank Ashley Leeds and Michaela Mattes for sharing their data. We are also grateful for the many useful comments we received when we presented versions of this paper at the 2013 American Political Science Association meeting and the 2014 International Political Economy Society meeting.